The 20 years contract

The coming thoughts might polarize. I hope I can have your trust to bear with me and please try to hold back judgment along the way. Generally, I think rushing to judgment is the enemy of anticipation (and eventually understanding), but I also understand that we are all going through a very challenging era — both in society and global economics.

Just a few days ago, I had a conversation with my dear friend Jonathan Brill — according to Forbes, the world’s leading futurist — and we spoke about the 20 years contract. I have met a few people in my life who have their physical body in the present, but their mind already occupied with a future promise, vision, or bet.

A few years ago, Jeff Bezos responded to a question about quarterly results that he does not care about quarterly reports. His focus is on the company in 20 years, and it is the job of people in the company to focus on now, tomorrow, next month, next quarter, and this year. But you cannot do both: you cannot work ON the company and at the same time IN the company.

“If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you’re competing against a lot of people. But if you’re willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people.” – Jeff Bezos

What you learn in Silicon Valley, before you make a judgment, is asking the question: “Do we already have enough data?” (or: do I have enough data?)—to form an opinion. In that spirit, we cannot say yet if the development in the US is Good News or Bad News.

This is also where the minds split. One opinion is to see the responsibility of a leader as seeing the long-term vision of his company (or country). Another opinion is to not let that vision hold you back from caring about what the process does to people along the way.

Trump is going for the 20 years contract — and he does not care that this means hell for many people along the way. I am among those who agree that this is not politics in a country I want to live in (which is why I paused curating Conference on Wheels in Silicon Valley). But I am also among those who agree that past politics have not done their job too well. The world is in imbalance of everything (health, finance, environment, peace, wealth…), and “everything” is undoubtedly too much. The real question is not whether or not we support Trump. The question is: where did we turn wrong to create a world that brings a man like Trump to the throne of the world’s most powerful leadership position?

However, this is as far into politics as I would like to lean. For decades, I have tried to avoid talking politics and called myself a non-political person. I don’t think that’s possible in the world we live in today. We are in a room together and in one corner of the room, an engine is running — and eventually we will all breathe the air that engine is exhausting. It is not possible to stay out of it.

But this is how far I expose myself today. Also: I don’t want to lose you.

What I do want to talk about is the 20 years contract. The concept of one world trying to understand and process what is happening today, and a small fraction of humans trying to understand how this world should look like in 2045—and a) how we will get there, and b) how we will get there faster.

“I don’t believe in looking at short-term stuff. If you’re building a company or a product, you’ve got to be thinking about the next ten years.” – Elon Musk

What is a 20 years contract? To me, it is neither evolution nor revolution. It is something more deliberate. The confidence we have in our system is built on conditioning, experience, and habits. Taking this confidence from us naturally ignites resistance and friction. But to build a "new confidence," we have to let go of our current confidence. Only then can we embark on a process of identifying a clear vision of a desired state on the horizon — and (re)build with intention. It means zero tolerance for the things we should no longer accept — and a fierce commitment to (re)designing the rules, the structures, and the assumptions we operate on. It's not about optimizing the present — it's about aligning with the future. Which also explains that the same individual cannot execute in the present and sign up for the 20 years contract at the same time.

"Leadership is the capacity to translate vision into reality." — Warren Bennis

I think 20 years is a lot. And very vague. So many parameters we cannot grasp. Even those who are putting their nose into exponential growth — and I consider myself an exponentialist since 2015 — are frequently wrong when their predictions meet the timeline. Whatever we think we know is coming, we will be surprised—once it is a situation to deal with.

Jonathan Brill talks about the 5 years plan. To me, this makes a lot of sense, because navigating the ship along the 5-year timeline already means dealing with a high level of uncertainty, but staying close to achievable goals.

I am not a futurist. But I spend a lot of time with people who have a very clear idea about the world in 5–10 years. People like Jonathan. Sitting together in one room with these minds changes you. Context helps to reframe the scenarios around us. I have to admit that there are not a lot of places in the world where I experience a comparable density of conversations like these. Silicon Valley, Dubai, Hong Kong/Shenzhen have proven to me that energy. I have met individuals who share this mindset everywhere in the world — but to the capacity of filling a week with conversations like this, I dare to reduce possible destinations to those three.

“I’m here to build something for the long term. Anything else is a distraction.” – Mark Zuckerberg

I am personally intrigued by this model of living. I disagree with the part about not caring about the journey (I care a lot about the journey), but I understand that we have to separate the world into those who set the theme and those who execute along the way.

In the beginning, I asked you to hold back judgment — which I would like to end today as a motto: this is a good time to hold back judgment. And maybe just decide who you would like to sit at the table with: with those who care about today, or with those who envision a world that has dealt with today’s challenges successfully.

Both is fair. But if you want to visit these futures—I am your guy.

This text is NOT AI generated. I have asked chatGPT "please check this text for grammatical mistakes and fix major phrasing issues, but do NOT rewrite, I want to keep my voice", because I am not English native.

Coverphoto: chatGPT (can you please design a photorealistic artwork with a high level of detail in the format 16:9 - that fits this text?)